Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:56:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb524…0808 other 276 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 101d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,152 (+8%) realized +$6,131 · open −$979
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate63%133W / 79L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day31.2pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$9,419now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,839
7 days+$2,707
14 days+$4,498
30 days+$6,162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$1,055
politics 25% +$5,870
sports 12% +$1,784
crypto 3% −$205
world 0% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +5.3% -4.7% 48% 35% +36.2%
≤30d 77 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 30% +10.2%
≤90d 209 +11.1% +0.5% 62% 33% +2.6%
all 212 +11.7% +1.0% 63% 33% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.0% 33% +2.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.6% 27% -7.1%
15% -17.5% 22% -16.0%
20% -25.6% 18% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$45 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.41 per $1 lost it wins $3.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$9,419
Realized+$6,131
Unrealized−$979
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses133 / 79
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions67
Markets (closed)212 / 276
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$231
Trades / day31.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 67 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 75¢ 76¢ $1,897 $1,940 +$43 (+2%)
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $899 $1,182 +$283 (+31%)
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? No 91¢ 93¢ $768 $783 +$16 (+2%)
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $609 $569 −$40 (-7%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $692 $554 −$138 (-20%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $309 $429 +$120 (+39%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 98¢ 98¢ $313 $313 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $292 $279 −$13 (-5%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $302 $255 −$47 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $268 $230 −$38 (-14%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $274 $225 −$49 (-18%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 10¢ 17¢ $123 $211 +$88 (+71%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $185 $170 −$15 (-8%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $308 $158 −$151 (-49%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $436 $150 −$286 (-66%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 49¢ 70¢ $98 $141 +$43 (+44%)
Will Vinícius Júnior win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $48 $127 +$79 (+164%)
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $161 $123 −$38 (-24%)
Will Dominique de Villepin be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $82 $112 +$29 (+35%)
Will USA reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 51¢ 54¢ $102 $107 +$5 (+5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 86¢ 97¢ $75 $84 +$10 (+13%)
Will Sarah Knafo be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 35¢ 17¢ $174 $84 −$89 (-51%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 40¢ 40¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $115 $75 −$40 (-35%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $180 $75 −$105 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $430 −$145 -34%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $147 −$35 -24%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $87 $0 +0%
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Jun 29 $16 −$1 -9%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $1,716 +$1,284 +75%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $2,481 +$1,714 +69%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el Jun 28 $59 +$7 +12%
Will Scotland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $46 +$14 +32%
Will Spain be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 27 $92 +$4 +4%
Will Alex de Minaur be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 26 $17 +$9 +55%
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Senegal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $11 −$1 -12%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Will Czechia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $24 −$24 -100%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $9 +$41 +474%
Will Iran reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -99%
Will South Korea reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $7 +$4 +57%
Will Clémentine Autain advance to the second round of the next French Jun 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Scotland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Egypt reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $5 +$11 +220%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $525 +$258 +49%
Will Tunisia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $218 −$158 -73%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $2,297 +$2,384 +104%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1,915 −$206 -11%
Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,216 −$11 -1%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $9 +$1 +12%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $313 −$304 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $77 −$75 -97%
Will Jamie Leweling be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +0%
Will David Raum be in Germany's Starting 11? Jun 14 $149 +$1 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,123 +$51 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $216 +$10 +4%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 14 $158 +$2 +1%
Will Matthieu Pigasse be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia Jun 14 $559 +$23 +4%
Will Morocco go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 14 $144 +$108 +75%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $250 −$28 -11%
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will New Zealand reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $1,200 $0 +0%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 11m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $5 11m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $15 12m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 12m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $16 13m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $1 13m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 13m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $1 13m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $10 19m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $12 20m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $13 20m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 20m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $4 21m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $8 27m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $28 27m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $24 27m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 27m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 38m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 39m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 44m
Will Daniil Medvedev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 44m
Will Alexander Zverev be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 93¢ $8 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,419.43 · official $9,424.60 (match) · 3500 history records