Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:11:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb527…3b52 other 262 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (158 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$2,271 (+5%) realized +$2,046 · open +$225
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate46%72W / 86L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day158.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$8,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$509
7 days−$600
14 days+$183
30 days+$492
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$900
finance 21% +$87
tech 19% +$500
sports 6% −$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (158 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+43.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +34.7% +21.9% 36% 22% -11.7%
≤30d 158 +59.1% +43.9% 46% 32% -3.8%
≤90d 158 +59.1% +43.9% 46% 32% -3.8%
all 158 +59.1% +43.9% 46% 32% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover158.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +43.9% 32% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here +30.2% 23% -13.0%
15% +17.6% 17% -21.4%
20% +6.1% 13% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$20 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$8,373
Realized+$2,046
Unrealized+$225
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses72 / 86
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions139
Markets (closed)158 / 262
History coverage21d ⚠
Avg bet$172
Trades / day158.1
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 139 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $500 in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $332 $331 −$1 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in June? No 88¢ 90¢ $305 $312 +$7 (+2%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in June? No 93¢ 97¢ $283 $297 +$13 (+5%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $170 in June? No 42¢ 81¢ $145 $279 +$134 (+93%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $174 in June? No 26¢ 72¢ $89 $247 +$158 (+178%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 91¢ 97¢ $228 $243 +$15 (+6%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $480 in June? No 84¢ 97¢ $207 $239 +$33 (+16%)
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in June? No 36¢ 72¢ $118 $233 +$115 (+98%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $70 in June? No 91¢ 90¢ $231 $227 −$4 (-2%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $520 in June? No 77¢ 81¢ $202 $212 +$10 (+5%)
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in June? No 79¢ 78¢ $192 $190 −$3 (-1%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $700 in June? No 78¢ 89¢ $151 $173 +$22 (+15%)
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $264 in June? No 90¢ 96¢ $157 $168 +$11 (+7%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $660 in June? No 84¢ 93¢ $147 $162 +$16 (+11%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 80¢ 98¢ $128 $156 +$28 (+22%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $96 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $148 $153 +$5 (+4%)
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $55 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $145 $151 +$6 (+4%)
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in June? No 94¢ 98¢ $141 $146 +$5 (+4%)
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in June? No 76¢ 72¢ $151 $144 −$7 (-5%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $152 in June? No 87¢ 92¢ $135 $143 +$8 (+6%)
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in June? No 68¢ 91¢ $101 $136 +$35 (+34%)
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $160 in June? No 90¢ 95¢ $127 $134 +$7 (+6%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $340 in June? No 82¢ 80¢ $137 $133 −$4 (-3%)
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in June? No 93¢ 96¢ $128 $132 +$4 (+3%)
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $90 in June? No 87¢ 96¢ $116 $128 +$12 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 45 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 in May? Jun 18 $0 −$33 -40239%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $132 in May? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $770 in May? Jun 18 $4 +$19 +465%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $108 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$10 -1551%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? Jun 18 $21 +$2 +10%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $148 in May? Jun 18 $0 +$2 +5921%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $212 in May? Jun 18 $28 −$17 -63%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in May? Jun 18 $1 +$5 +915%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 in May? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $390 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$6 -1104%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in May? Jun 18 $1 +$7 +466%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,500 in May? Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (HIGH) $5.00 in May? Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $465 in May? Jun 18 $31 −$76 -247%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in May? Jun 18 $0 +$5 +5000%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $390 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$5 -516%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $114 in May? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $74 in May? Jun 18 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $148 in May? Jun 18 $6 −$11 -174%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $216 in May? Jun 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $440 in May? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in May? Jun 18 $5 −$10 -202%
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $120 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$4 -323%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in May? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $370 in May? Jun 18 $18 −$10 -58%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $420 in May? Jun 18 $3 −$48 -1722%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 in May? Jun 18 $9 −$62 -666%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $156 in May? Jun 18 $68 −$63 -92%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? Jun 18 $459 +$3 +1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $20 −$10 -51%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $18 −$9 -48%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $36 −$7 -20%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $70 −$12 -17%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $228 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $0 $0 -52%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 -52%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $296 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -47%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $256 in June? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $4 $0 +12%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $525 in June? Jun 17 $1 $0 -47%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $160 in June? Jun 17 $61 +$3 +5%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$14 +100%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 17 $132 −$31 -24%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $67 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $14 +$36 +257%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June? Jun 17 $403 +$65 +16%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $155 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $68 −$10 -14%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in June? Jun 17 $204 +$49 +24%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $13 +$35 +279%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $204 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $119 +$2 +1%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $397.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $62 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in June? SELL No 93¢ $73 8m
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 19m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 35m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 39m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 58m
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 93¢ $47 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 70¢ $58 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $4.00 Week of June 15 BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June? SELL No 57¢ $63 1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $100 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 1h
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $102 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? SELL No 75¢ $10 2h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of June 15 BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $141 Week of June 15 BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $80 in June? SELL No 89¢ $119 2h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2h
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $236 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 42¢ $22 2h
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $360 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $28 2h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $66 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $23 2h
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $13 2h
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $405 Week of June 15 2026 BUY No 93¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,373.26 · official $8,373.13 (match) · 3500 history records