Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:57:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb52a…0a58 weather 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,074 (-43%) realized −$1,090 · open +$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%20W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$358now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$35
14 days−$1,098
30 days−$1,098
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% −$218
other 39% −$845
sports 2% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -2.1% -11.4% 79% 54% -6.1%
≤30d 32 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 44% -55.9%
≤90d 32 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 44% -55.9%
all 32 -14.3% -22.4% 62% 44% -55.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 44% -55.9%
10% -29.8% 16% -60.1%
15% -36.6% 3% -64.0%
20% -42.8% 3% -67.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$102 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$358
Realized−$1,090
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses20 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage10d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? No 88¢ 84¢ $101 $96 −$5 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? No 91¢ 92¢ $68 $68 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 23? No 84¢ 84¢ $59 $58 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 22? No 90¢ 100¢ $45 $50 +$5 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 23? No 79¢ 97¢ $40 $48 +$9 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? No 75¢ 91¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 22 $47 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 22? Jun 22 $38 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $89 +$10 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? Jun 22 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? Jun 22 $53 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Jun 22 $45 +$14 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? Jun 22 $37 +$3 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 22? Jun 22 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 22 $39 +$11 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 22 $40 +$10 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 +$5 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 22? Jun 21 $36 −$3 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $45 +$4 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 21? Jun 21 $44 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21? Jun 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 21? Jun 20 $29 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 17? Jun 17 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $24 +$6 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $9 +$17 +193%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$37 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $71 −$55 -76%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $61 −$19 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $793 −$792 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 75¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $40 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $99 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $14 7h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY No 84¢ $42 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 89¢ $39 8h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 23? BUY No 88¢ $44 8h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 79¢ $40 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 23? BUY No 69¢ $2 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $16 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $6 8h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on June 23? BUY No 91¢ $43 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $50 9h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C on June 22? SELL No 100¢ $60 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 92¢ $46 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $36 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 22? BUY No 95¢ $2 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 68¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $59 11h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $40 13h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 20 to June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $65 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $357.57 · official $357.87 (match) · 117 history records