Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:04:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb52e…cdce sports 814 markets active 2h ago coverage 208d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,673 (-12%) realized −$8,683 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%373W / 440L
Whale WR27%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$92per market
Trades / day9.5pace
Fees−$226est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$268
14 days−$389
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$7,831
other 10% −$792
crypto 0% −$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 38% -30.8%
≤30d 63 -10.3% -18.8% 46% 44% -30.8%
≤90d 310 -24.7% -31.9% 36% 35% -36.2%
all 813 -8.3% -17.0% 46% 42% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 42% -20.2%
10% -24.9% 39% -27.8%
15% -32.2% 35% -34.8%
20% -38.8% 32% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 27% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$76 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

208d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$8,683
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses373 / 440
Whale WR (big bets)27%
Est. fees paid−$226
Open positions1
Markets (closed)813 / 814
History coverage208d
Avg bet$92
Trades / day9.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 813 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Gerrit Cole: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Over 45¢ 50¢ $91 $101 +$10 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 27 $50 +$151 +304%
Nick Martinez: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Sadio Mané: 5+ shots Jun 26 $91 −$91 -100%
Bergs vs. Samuel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 26 $50 +$41 +83%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 25 $54 −$53 -99%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 25 $94 −$75 -80%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) Jun 25 $58 −$29 -49%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 25 $81 +$18 +22%
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals Jun 25 $50 +$90 +180%
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ assists Jun 24 $29 −$29 -98%
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots Jun 24 $1 −$1 -98%
Jacob deGrom: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $6 +$6 +99%
Bianca Andreescu vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $2 +$3 +163%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann Jun 24 $42 −$28 -67%
Mitch Keller: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $50 −$49 -99%
Mandlik vs. Charaeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Elizabeth Mandlik vs. Alina Charaeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Dani Olmo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $149 −$147 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Toby Samuel Jun 21 $70 +$79 +114%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Anastasia Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Pedro Vite: 2+ shots Jun 21 $40 +$30 +73%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ assists Jun 20 $51 −$49 -98%
John Yeboah: 1+ goals Jun 20 $8 −$7 -98%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $47 −$46 -98%
Nathan Eovaldi: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $6 +$7 +114%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Jun 20 $18 +$12 +70%
Set Handicap: Sherif (-1.5) vs Yaneva (+1.5) Jun 20 $56 +$71 +128%
Set Handicap: Gurri (-1.5) vs Ravel (+1.5) Jun 20 $2 +$3 +114%
Set Handicap: Charaeva (-1.5) vs Aksu (+1.5) Jun 20 $47 −$47 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Set 2 Winner: Paul vs Fokina Jun 19 $13 +$7 +59%
Jeline Vandromme vs. Ayla Aksu: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $5 +$8 +186%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cleveland Guardians v Jun 17 $126 −$124 -99%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-2.5) Jun 17 $106 +$24 +23%
Jude Bellingham: 2+ shots Jun 17 $66 +$41 +62%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Lo Jun 17 $20 +$15 +75%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs TheMongolz (+3.5) Jun 13 $178 −$175 -98%
Corey Seager: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $155 +$23 +15%
Jovo Lukić: 1+ goals Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $96 +$113 +119%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+3.5) Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Lee Kangin: 1+ shots Jun 12 $183 +$36 +20%
Marcell Ozuna: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $169 +$14 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $102 +$66 +65%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Aurora Gaming (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) Jun 11 $4 +$5 +118%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $46 +$47 +101%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 10 $49 −$49 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Gerrit Cole: Strikeouts O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $93 1h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr SELL Yes 91¢ $201 2h
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr BUY Yes 22¢ $50 4h
Nick Martinez: Strikeouts O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $50 19h
Sadio Mané: 5+ shots BUY Yes 40¢ $91 23h
Bergs vs. Samuel: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 54¢ $50 30h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. BUY No 56¢ $54 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 17¢ $3 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 17¢ $8 43h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 17¢ $8 43h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) SELL Athletics 42¢ $30 44h
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 85¢ $94 44h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals SELL No 99¢ $99 44h
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5) BUY Athletics 81¢ $58 44h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY No 81¢ $81 45h
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $140 45h
Nicolas Pépé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $50 46h
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ assists BUY Yes 16¢ $29 2d
Ermedin Demirović: 1+ assists BUY Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Kerim Alajbegović: 3+ shots BUY Yes 26¢ $1 2d
Jacob deGrom: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $12 2d
Bianca Andreescu vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 99¢ $5 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann SELL Jil Teichmann 13¢ $14 2d
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Bianca Andreescu vs Jil Teichmann BUY Jil Teichmann 38¢ $42 3d
Bianca Andreescu vs. Jil Teichmann: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 37¢ $2 3d
Jacob deGrom: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 BUY Over 49¢ $6 3d
Mitch Keller: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $45 3d
Mitch Keller: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $5 3d
Mandlik vs. Charaeva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 50¢ $44 4d
Elizabeth Mandlik vs. Alina Charaeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 37¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.17 · official $101.17 (match) · 2364 history records