Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:58:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb52e…9010 crypto 233 markets active 1h ago coverage 511d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$567 (-16%) realized −$565 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate40%93W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$27
14 days+$27
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% −$184
sports 31% −$152
other 13% −$190
world 2% −$35
politics 0% −$8
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +30.6% +18.2% 56% 56% +8.6%
≤30d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 35% 32% -17.7%
≤90d 47 -24.7% -31.9% 32% 28% -26.0%
all 232 -19.9% -27.5% 40% 34% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.5% 34% -24.3%
10% -34.5% 28% -31.5%
15% -40.8% 22% -38.1%
20% -46.6% 20% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

511d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$565
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses93 / 139
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)232 / 233
History coverage511d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 232 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $11 −$2 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 +$1 +32%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $32 +$25 +78%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$16 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -78%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $22 +$24 +109%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$12 +85%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $16 −$16 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 25 $16 −$8 -49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $43 −$42 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $23 +$34 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 22? May 22 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -56%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $23 +$12 +52%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET May 20 $27 −$25 -94%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $39 +$54 +140%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $174 −$40 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 17 $4 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 17 $4 −$1 -14%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $2 +$2 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 17 $5 −$3 -53%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $8 −$7 -84%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 May 11-17? May 13 $10 −$6 -55%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET May 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $6 −$4 -73%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $40 −$40 -100%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $19 +$22 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 10 $7 −$7 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 10 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 10 $5 +$7 +129%
UFC: Khamzat Chimaev to Land 1st Minute Takedown? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 28 $2 −$2 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 28 $2 +$2 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Feb 28 $3 −$2 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 75¢ $3 53m
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 57¢ $7 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $18 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $25 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up $5 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $2 26h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 16¢ $6 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 28¢ $13 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $22 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes $0 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $13 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 27¢ $26 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 2d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 21¢ $8 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? SELL Yes $8 21d
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights BUY Avalanche 50¢ $8 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.62 · official $10.62 (match) · 829 history records