Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb534…06a6 crypto 165 markets active 5d ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$490 (-2%) realized −$490 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%75W / 90L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,567
14 days−$1,481
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$1,158
crypto 32% +$692
sports 30% −$286
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -12.6% -20.9% 55% 45% -24.6%
≤30d 94 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 40% -12.5%
≤90d 94 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 40% -12.5%
all 165 -9.5% -18.1% 45% 38% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.1% 38% -12.7%
10% -26.0% 33% -21.0%
15% -33.1% 28% -28.7%
20% -39.7% 24% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$64 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses75 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage190d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions (66 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $383 −$382 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $394 −$11 -3%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $228 +$166 +73%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $679 −$115 -17%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $323 +$20 +6%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $228 +$95 +41%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $195 +$33 +17%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $143 +$53 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 13 $210 −$151 -72%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $674 −$380 -56%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $389 +$123 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $154 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2,233 −$2,220 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $812 +$923 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $850 +$168 +20%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $768 +$82 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $543 +$225 +41%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $205 −$11 -6%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $205 −$17 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $103 +$4 +4%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $61 −$6 -10%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $201 +$5 +3%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $175 +$177 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 04 $597 −$71 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 04 $53 −$50 -94%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $597 +$53 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 04 $103 +$106 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 04 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 04 $219 +$143 +65%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 1.5 Jun 04 $728 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1 +$8 +776%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 31 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 31 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 31 $263 −$123 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 31 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 31 $197 +$66 +34%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $199 +$20 +10%
Will Senegal win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $163 −$89 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 31 $121 +$288 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $292 −$278 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 92¢ $383 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 83¢ $384 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 84¢ $394 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $394 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $228 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 61¢ $228 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $336 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 85¢ $336 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $343 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $343 4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $323 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $323 4d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 70¢ $228 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 75¢ $228 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $195 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $195 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 75¢ $58 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $59 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 70¢ $84 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $210 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 38¢ $294 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $1 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 85¢ $673 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $513 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 22¢ $161 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $345 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $154 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,734 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 384 history records