Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:42:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb538…7a1e sports 1161 markets active 19h ago coverage 53d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,462 (+0%) realized +$1,462 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%1134W / 27L
Whale WR98%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$363per market
Trades / day45.5pace
Fees−$294est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$332
7 days+$1,405
14 days+$76
30 days+$814
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$1,519
other 0% −$28
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +3.2% -6.6% 100% 7% -6.2%
≤30d 555 +0.9% -8.7% 99% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 1161 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -9.2%
all 1161 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 2% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 2% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 1% -17.9%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 98% (≥$693) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$252 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,462
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1134 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)98%
Est. fees paid−$294
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1161 / 1161
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$363
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1161 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $242 +$2 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $104 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $500 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $166 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $971 +$39 +4%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FULLPOWER vs FUT Turkuaz - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $335 +$13 +4%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $500 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: FULLPOWER vs FUT Turkuaz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $555 +$152 +27%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $309 +$45 +14%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $499 +$6 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $930 +$80 +9%
Counter-Strike: Iowa Stormboar vs Overtake - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $136 +$1 +1%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $99 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $407 +$34 +8%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs Dripmen - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $220 +$5 +2%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $38 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED L Jun 12 $54 +$1 +2%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $500 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - TESFED League Jun 12 $391 +$37 +10%
Counter-Strike: FUT Turkuaz vs Fire Flux Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $859 +$121 +14%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 12 $985 +$25 +2%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs ex-MANA eSports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $912 +$98 +11%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $22 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $988 +$22 +2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $40 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Ding Cuts vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Jun 12 $941 +$69 +7%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $95 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 G Jun 12 $750 +$9 +1%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $495 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: MARKandLARRY vs Abyssal - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $513 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 12 $981 +$29 +3%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $500 +$5 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $444 +$4 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $990 +$20 +2%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $997 +$13 +1%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $32 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $44 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $0 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $105 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $11 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $6 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $22 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $11 19h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $270 19h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 99¢ $121 19h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs G2 Ares - Map 2 Winner BUY SPARTA 99¢ $120 19h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $104 21h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $36 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $20 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $12 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 99¢ $98 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $186 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $19 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $100 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $4 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $143 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $41 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 22h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $2 22h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY Bebop 96¢ $971 24h
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs Coalesce - Map 2 Winner BUY Coalesce 99¢ $99 29h
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar - Map 1 Winner BUY Festina Lente 99¢ $20 43h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $500 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records