Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb53f…8dcc other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 198d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$925 (-34%) realized −$899 · open −$26
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%10W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$284now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days+$172
14 days−$969
30 days−$969
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$170
politics 42% −$1,116
sports 8% −$50
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-36.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -30.4% -37.0% 35% 35% +4.4%
≤30d 28 -33.0% -39.4% 29% 29% -46.4%
≤90d 28 -33.0% -39.4% 29% 29% -46.4%
all 31 -29.7% -36.4% 32% 29% -46.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.4% 29% -46.3%
10% -42.5% 29% -51.4%
15% -48.0% 29% -56.1%
20% -53.1% 23% -60.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$75 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

198d coverage
Net worth$284
Realized−$899
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses10 / 21
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)31 / 40
History coverage198d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 28¢ $40 $18 −$22 (-56%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $227 +$118 +52%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$42 +42%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$157 +307%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$43 -84%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$65 +64%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $176 +$96 +55%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 +$31 +203%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $1,147 −$1,116 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 9? Dec 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 8? Dec 08 $5 +$5 +100%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.00 and $2.10 on December 7? Dec 07 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $36 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $36 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $71 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $227 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 30h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $10 35h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 46h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 2d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes $8 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $10 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $271 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.24 · official $284.24 (match) · 60 history records