Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:21:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B5 0xb53f…7bd3 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$925 (+42%) realized +$843 · open +$82

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +99% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +73% what you keep after slip

Net edge+73%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%6W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$246per market

Trades / day5.6pace

Fees−$23est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$275now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+80.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	+99.2%	+80.2%	100%	100%	+80.6%
≤30d	6	+99.2%	+80.2%	100%	100%	+80.6%
≤90d	6	+99.2%	+80.2%	100%	100%	+80.6%
all	6	+99.2%	+80.2%	100%	100%	+80.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+80.2%	100%	+80.6%
10%	+63.0%	100%	+63.3%
15%	+47.2%	100%	+47.5%
20%	+32.8%	100%	+33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 33% · top 2 51% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +100% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +99% · $-wt +100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$307 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$275

Realized+$843

Unrealized+$82

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses6 / 0

Est. fees paid−$23

Open positions2

Markets (closed)6 / 9

History coverage2d

Avg bet$246

Trades / day5.6

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 6 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	Yes	50¢	100¢	$93	$186	+$93 (+100%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners	Over	62¢	55¢	$100	$89	−$11 (-11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$285	+$321	+113%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$203	+$232	+114%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on	Jun 20	$398	+$609	+153%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$308	+$198	+64%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	Jun 20	$264	+$227	+86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$390	+$252	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	50¢	$94	1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners	BUY Over	62¢	$101	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY	46¢	$285	22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on	BUY	39¢	$398	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$506	22h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	60¢	$308	26h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	46¢	$203	26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY	17¢	$174	26h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5)	BUY Brazil	53¢	$264	40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	60¢	$390	44h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.11 · official $275.11 (match) · 15 history records