Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
B5 0xb53f…dc8e other 118 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 106L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$281per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$15
politics 30% −$15
sports 12% +$31
tech 5% −$2
crypto 4% −$1
world 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 77 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 117 -0.9% -10.4% 9% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -9.5%
10% -19.0% 7% -18.2%
15% -26.8% 4% -26.1%
20% -34.0% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×9.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 106
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)117 / 118
History coverage132d
Avg bet$281
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 20 $208 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 27 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $279 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $265 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $213 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $219 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $237 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $265 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $279 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no May 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $443 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $681 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $477 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $196 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $255 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $723 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $737 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $489 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $217 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $445 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $824 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $196 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $203 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap Apr 13 $251 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 12 $199 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $256 $0 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $258 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $215 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $465 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $397 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 08 $233 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $227 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 13h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 24h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $208 24h
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $208 10d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $198 24d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $198 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $223 24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $223 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $273 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $273 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $279 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $279 27d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $213 29d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $213 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $219 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $219 29d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $237 30d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $237 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $265 31d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $265 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $264 32d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $264 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $216 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $216 33d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $207 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.99 · official $25.99 (match) · 349 history records