Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:04:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb541…ddb5 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$33 (-7%) realized −$15 · open −$18
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%5W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$265now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$14
14 days+$14
30 days+$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% +$27
crypto 17% −$41
sports 4% −$13
finance 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-54.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -30.2% -36.9% 33% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 12 -30.2% -36.9% 33% 33% -0.6%
≤90d 19 -44.4% -49.7% 26% 26% -14.0%
all 21 -49.7% -54.5% 24% 24% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.5% 24% -19.2%
10% -58.8% 24% -27.0%
15% -62.8% 19% -34.0%
20% -66.5% 10% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$5 · ×2.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$265
Realized−$15
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses5 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)21 / 26
History coverage122d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $214 $190 −$24 (-11%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $56 +$22 +40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$27 +134%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $8 −$8 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 07 $20 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 07 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 11h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $5 12h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $10 14h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 20h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $29 21h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 78¢ $10 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 21h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $8 35h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 35h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 45h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 45h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 17¢ $219 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up $5 45h
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up $2 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 79d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $3 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $265.40 · official $265.40 (match) · 64 history records