Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:53:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb545…16bf crypto 60 markets active 2h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-24%) realized −$78 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%23W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 66% −$46
other 19% −$35
weather 15% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-32.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -38.8% -44.6% 17% 17% -55.6%
≤30d 13 -34.6% -40.9% 23% 23% -54.9%
≤90d 58 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 38% -35.8%
all 58 -25.8% -32.9% 40% 38% -35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.9% 38% -35.8%
10% -39.3% 33% -41.9%
15% -45.2% 26% -47.5%
20% -50.6% 19% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$78
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses23 / 35
Open positions2
Markets (closed)58 / 60
History coverage58d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-4%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $4 +$16 +430%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 12 $5 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -76%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $12 +$4 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $9 −$4 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 14 $5 +$2 +47%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 14 $5 +$11 +201%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +76%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 13 $5 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 08 $5 $0 -7%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 08 $5 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 07 $5 −$4 -80%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET May 07 $5 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 06 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 24 $5 +$3 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 46h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June SELL Yes 99¢ $19 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 18¢ $4 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL Yes 20¢ $16 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $9 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 32d
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.72 · official $24.72 (match) · 130 history records