Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb549…79ef
sports · 35 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$95 -34%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$97 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$105
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses18 / 16
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage110d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 34 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$75
14 days−$75
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Alex Pereira 51¢ 50¢ $106 $105 −$1 (-1%)
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-02-25? Yes 22¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Suns Lakers 65¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Up 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Bulls 38¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Kings vs. Mavericks Mavericks 72¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Heat vs. 76ers Heat 44¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Warriors Warriors 42¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Pistons Thunder 23¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 58¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Celtics vs. Nuggets Celtics 43¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 −$75 -98%
Lakers vs. Warriors Feb 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Nets Feb 27 $1 $0 +16%
Hornets vs. Pacers Feb 27 $2 $0 +16%
Timberwolves vs. Clippers Feb 27 $2 +$1 +52%
Rockets vs. Magic Feb 27 $2 +$1 +72%
Heat vs. 76ers Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Sabres vs. Devils Feb 26 $1 +$1 +100%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $2 +$1 +41%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $2 +$1 +52%
Warriors vs. Grizzlies Feb 26 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? Feb 26 $2 +$2 +82%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 25 $2 $0 +13%
Thunder vs. Raptors Feb 25 $2 +$3 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Feb 24 $5 +$1 +11%
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-02-25? Feb 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 24 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Feb 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Feb 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Feb 24 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 +$1 +73%
Will Erika Kirk attend the 2026 State of the Union address? Feb 24 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Feb 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Feb 24 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 24 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$14
other 32% −$74
crypto 17% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $108 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $2 16h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $21 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $55 17h
Lakers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 42¢ $10 107d
Spurs vs. Nets BUY Spurs 86¢ $1 108d
Rockets vs. Magic BUY Rockets 58¢ $2 108d
Hornets vs. Pacers BUY Hornets 86¢ $2 108d
Heat vs. 76ers BUY Heat 44¢ $2 108d
Timberwolves vs. Clippers BUY Timberwolves 66¢ $2 108d
Lakers vs. Suns BUY Lakers 65¢ $2 108d
Kings vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 72¢ $2 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Bulls 38¢ $2 108d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 108d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 108d
Sabres vs. Devils BUY Sabres 50¢ $1 108d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 43¢ $2 108d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 71¢ $2 108d
Warriors vs. Grizzlies BUY Warriors 63¢ $2 108d
Thunder vs. Pistons BUY Thunder 23¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 108d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $6 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 109d
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 109d
Thunder vs. Raptors BUY Thunder 49¢ $2 109d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 110d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -97.9% -98.1% 0% 0% -98.1%
≤30d 1 -97.9% -98.1% 0% 0% -98.1%
≤90d 1 -97.9% -98.1% 0% 0% -98.1%
all 34 -17.0% -24.9% 53% 44% -60.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 44% -60.7%
10% -32.1% 32% -64.4%
15% -38.6% 29% -67.9%
20% -44.7% 26% -71.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.36 · official $105.36 (match) · 66 history records