Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:00:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb54b…c4b2 crypto 7 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-6%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-17.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 29% -23.6%
≤30d 7 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 29% -23.6%
≤90d 7 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 29% -23.6%
all 7 -9.1% -17.7% 43% 29% -23.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.7% 29% -23.6%
10% -25.6% 29% -30.9%
15% -32.8% 29% -37.6%
20% -39.4% 29% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$6 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)7 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 7 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$11 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records