Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb553…2738 tech 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$41 (+0%) realized +$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$3
politics 27% −$6
sports 15% −$5
tech 11% +$50
economics 7% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 2 +1.0% -8.6% 50% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 16 +0.1% -9.4% 19% 0% -9.6%
all 30 +2.4% -7.3% 37% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.2% 3% -17.9%
15% -24.3% 3% -25.9%
20% -31.7% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$638) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×4.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage212d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $107 $107 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $108 +$3 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 13 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $987 −$3 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 13 $991 −$4 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $991 −$2 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 13 $996 −$2 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $108 +$1 +1%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $636 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 14 $636 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $637 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $637 −$1 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $638 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $639 −$1 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 17 $130 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 17 $131 $0 -0%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Mar 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 17 $131 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 01 $130 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 19 $130 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 19 $125 +$5 +4%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jan 31 $60 +$2 +3%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jan 31 $60 +$3 +5%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Jan 12 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Dec 22 $93 +$4 +4%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Dec 11 $61 +$32 +52%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $59 +$2 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Nov 23 $34 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $107 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $106 1h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $106 3h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 98¢ $108 28d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL No 100¢ $980 35d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY No 100¢ $982 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $980 35d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $981 35d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $984 35d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $987 35d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $987 35d
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $991 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 98¢ $989 35d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 98¢ $991 35d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $994 35d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $996 35d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April BUY Yes 99¢ $108 58d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $635 64d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $636 64d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $636 64d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $636 64d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $636 64d
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $637 64d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $637 64d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $637 64d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $638 64d
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $638 64d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $638 64d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $639 64d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 99¢ $130 87d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.17 · official $107.17 (match) · 70 history records