Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:08:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb555…c8c1 crypto 373 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,471 (+4%) realized +$2,417 · open +$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%195W / 176L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$159per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$139now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days+$169
14 days+$169
30 days+$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 47% +15.7%
≤30d 36 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 47% +15.7%
≤90d 36 -6.2% -15.2% 50% 47% +15.7%
all 371 -4.2% -13.4% 53% 49% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 49% -6.3%
10% -21.6% 46% -15.2%
15% -29.2% 44% -23.4%
20% -36.2% 42% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$77 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$139
Realized+$2,417
Unrealized+$54
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses195 / 176
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)371 / 373
History coverage128d
Avg bet$159
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 371 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 50¢ 78¢ $60 $94 +$34 (+57%)
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Up 51¢ 92¢ $25 $45 +$20 (+80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 154 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $62 +$55 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$25 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $31 +$3 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$31 +196%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$13 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$13 +86%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $83 +$76 +91%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$40 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$6 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$13 +84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$13 +82%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $41 +$35 +85%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 -9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $31 −$22 -69%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$9 +84%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $15 +$6 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $35 +$5 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$6 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 26 $768 +$23 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Feb 26 $809 −$420 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Feb 26 $200 +$168 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Feb 26 $861 −$372 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Feb 26 $996 −$90 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Feb 26 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Feb 26 $761 −$100 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Feb 26 $772 +$132 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 26 $940 −$168 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Feb 26 $786 −$29 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Feb 26 $160 +$148 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $62 4m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $62 31m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 35m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $34 43m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 88¢ $159 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $15 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $36 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.15 · official $121.06 · 869 history records