Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T09:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb55a…e0ec crypto 86 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate62%61W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$7
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$8
other 3% +$5
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +2.8% -7.0% 51% 35% -8.8%
≤30d 98 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 40% -10.2%
≤90d 98 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 40% -10.2%
all 98 +2.5% -7.2% 62% 40% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 40% -10.2%
10% -16.1% 24% -18.8%
15% -24.2% 11% -26.6%
20% -31.6% 4% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses61 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 86
History coverage28d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Will Sanfrecce Hiroshima win on 2026-05-01? Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 —%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$7 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $25 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $48 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $18 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $20 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $38 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $21 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $21 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $19 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $33 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $26 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $22 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $27 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $35 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $31 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $2 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 226 history records