Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb55b…c5b4 sports 224 markets active 3h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,689 (+9%) realized +$2,546 · open +$143
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate57%127W / 94L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$426est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$719
7 days+$443
14 days+$2,253
30 days+$2,475
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$2,648
crypto 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +6.3% -3.8% 56% 56% -3.5%
≤30d 221 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -1.5%
≤90d 221 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -1.5%
all 221 +6.1% -4.0% 57% 55% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.0% 55% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.2% 54% -11.0%
15% -21.6% 50% -19.6%
20% -29.3% 43% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$101 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$527
Realized+$2,546
Unrealized+$143
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses127 / 94
Est. fees paid−$426
Open positions3
Markets (closed)221 / 224
History coverage27d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 221 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs FOKUS 55¢ 100¢ $151 $275 +$124 (+82%)
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B K27 67¢ 66¢ $154 $153 −$1 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B xept 39¢ 50¢ $79 $99 +$20 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 82 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $152 +$98 +64%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo Jun 19 $155 +$105 +68%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $170 +$110 +65%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $313 +$142 +46%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs Jun 19 $152 +$108 +72%
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A Jun 19 $152 +$53 +35%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $152 +$80 +53%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 18 $159 −$157 -99%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $151 +$129 +85%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $156 +$134 +86%
Valorant: DRX Academy vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 18 $150 +$245 +163%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $150 +$128 +85%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $156 −$154 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $60 +$112 +186%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $116 −$114 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $59 +$101 +172%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $126 −$123 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $150 −$150 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion Academy vs ex-MANA eSports (BO3) - United21 Gr Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $140 −$138 -98%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 18 $150 +$64 +43%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $156 +$129 +83%
Counter-Strike: Fortress vs AaB Bulls (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Division Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Bebop - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $153 −$3 -2%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $505 +$167 +33%
Map Handicap: RSTR (-1.5) vs DXA Esports (+1.5) Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 16 $151 +$129 +85%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $153 +$213 +139%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 16 $152 +$148 +97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $151 +$158 +104%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $153 −$151 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 15 $205 −$202 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $151 +$119 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$89 +59%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$74 +49%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $151 +$184 +122%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $307 −$161 -52%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$151 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends (BO3) - ROG Journey Jun 13 $62 +$7 +11%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $150 +$78 +52%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $151 +$119 +79%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $154 +$116 +75%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $192 −$151 -78%
Counter-Strike: Washed vs STATE (BO3) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group A Jun 12 $152 +$146 +96%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B BUY xept 39¢ $80 2h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Serie BUY Walczaki 61¢ $152 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo BUY FOKUS 55¢ $153 4h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $1 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $5 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $12 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $9 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $7 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $18 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $16 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $12 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $21 16h
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs BakS eSports (BO3) - ESEA European Finals P BUY BakS eSports 35¢ $2 16h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $46 17h
Dota 2: summer bear vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Playo BUY Power Rangers 59¢ $108 17h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $170 24h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 58¢ $24 24h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 58¢ $69 24h
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs BUY Hive 58¢ $59 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY K27 67¢ $156 24h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 65¢ $152 27h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 74¢ $139 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 74¢ $3 28h
Counter-Strike: Coalesce vs eSuba (BO3) - United21 Group A BUY eSuba 74¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $526.81 · official $526.81 (match) · 699 history records