Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb55b…17bf crypto 79 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%74W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$8
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$5
tech 0% +$1
other 0% $0
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 18 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 6% -9.4%
all 76 -2.2% -11.5% 97% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 1% -9.5%
10% -20.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.7% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$3 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses74 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)76 / 79
History coverage242d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? Jun 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? Jun 12 $109 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 09 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? Jun 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 16 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 11? May 15 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? May 09 $101 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $4 $0 +11%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? May 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 20 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 10 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $109 $0 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Apr 03 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? Mar 26 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? Mar 22 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? Mar 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? Mar 15 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 12? Mar 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 11 $101 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? Mar 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? Mar 06 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 1? Mar 03 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 24? Feb 24 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 21? Feb 22 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 17? Feb 19 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 15? Feb 16 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 14? Feb 14 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on February 12? Feb 13 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on February 1 Feb 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88,000 on February 9? Feb 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on February 7? Feb 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on February 5 Feb 06 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on February 2? Feb 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 31? Jan 31 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 30? Jan 31 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $96,000 on January 28? Jan 29 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $96,000 and $98,000 on January 26 Jan 27 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on January 24? Jan 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 20 Jan 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2,600 on January 17? Jan 18 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on January 14? Jan 15 $106 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on January 12? Jan 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 9? Jan 10 $107 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $100 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $6 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $109 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $101 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $103 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 45d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $6 47d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $4 58d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 22? BUY No 100¢ $104 61d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? BUY No 100¢ $108 66d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $104 69d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $106 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 6? BUY No 100¢ $109 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $102 81d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 28? BUY No 100¢ $105 86d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,700 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $103 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $106 91d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 93d
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $2 93d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 19? BUY No 100¢ $106 95d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 17? BUY No 100¢ $102 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $78,000 on March 16? BUY No 100¢ $108 98d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on March 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 100d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on March 12? BUY No 100¢ $105 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? BUY Yes 99¢ $101 105d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $104 106d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,500 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $104 110d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 1? BUY No 100¢ $104 113d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $111.51 · official $111.51 (match) · 157 history records