Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb569…021e sports 1289 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,640 (+7%) realized +$8,658 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate93%1188W / 95L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$376now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days+$3,273
14 days+$4,365
30 days+$5,189
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$7,240
other 1% −$1
weather 1% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 +10.6% +0.1% 55% 16% +0.7%
≤30d 206 +4.2% -5.8% 64% 21% +2.8%
≤90d 1271 +3.5% -6.3% 93% 6% -6.0%
all 1283 +3.5% -6.3% 93% 6% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.3% 6% -6.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.3% 4% -15.0%
15% -23.5% 3% -23.2%
20% -31.0% 3% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$24 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.13 per $1 lost it wins $4.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$376
Realized+$8,658
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses1188 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1283 / 1289
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$96
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1283 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 LGD NBW 96¢ 100¢ $148 $153 +$5 (+4%)
Game Handicap: RNG.M (-2.5) vs LGD NBW (+2.5) LGD NBW 100¢ 100¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+0%)
Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs Royal Never Give Up (+2.5) Royal Never Give Up 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $62 $62 +$0 (+0%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug (BO3) - The International North America Open Qualifier 1 Playoffs the bug 65¢ 70¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Dota 2: NA, we'd win vs the bug - Game 2 Winner NA, wed win 1¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-45%)
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Group 2 Royal Never Give Up 15¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S Jun 18 $4 +$12 +330%
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 Jun 18 $341 −$13 -4%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $6 −$4 -79%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Game Handicap: WOL (-1.5) vs Kuaishou Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: WOL (-2.5) vs Kuaishou Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $163 +$1 +1%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming (BO5) - King Pro League Stag Jun 17 $51 +$2 +4%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: Wolves vs Kuaishou Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Counter-Strike: CHAOS vs Alpha Dominion Nation (BO3) - United21 Group Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $198 +$2 +1%
Honor of Kings: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Talent Gaming (BO5) - King Pro Jun 17 $62 +$1 +1%
Game Handicap: TTG (-2.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+2.5) Jun 17 $199 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: INFURITY Gaming vs Alpha Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $49 −$48 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Magic vs Omnix - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $204 +$2 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND (BO3) - BetBoom Ris Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Cyber Hero vs HARD GRIND - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $446 +$4 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs The Soulless Team - Game 2 Jun 16 $269 +$7 +2%
Map Handicap: Solar (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $72 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $148 +$2 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $59 +$1 +1%
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $32 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $74 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 16 $4 +$6 +129%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $7 $0 -1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $67 −$11 -16%
Map Handicap: trigger (-1.5) vs Gerald (+1.5) Jun 16 $168 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Clutchain vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Barbie Boys vs 6Targets Esports (BO1) - Asia Pacifi Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$4 -24%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $12 +$3 +28%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: The Soulless Team vs Suplex Team (BO3) - Bet Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $82 +$2 +3%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $57 −$1 -2%
Overwatch: HUNENG vs Four Angry Men - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$1 +1%
Overwatch: All Gamers vs Solus Victorem (BO3) - OCS China Stage 2 Seed Jun 14 $495 +$6 +1%
Overwatch: All Gamers vs Solus Victorem - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $128 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: Nexus vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 98¢ $138 1h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 87¢ $8 1h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 100¢ $62 1h
Game Handicap: RNG.M (-2.5) vs LGD NBW (+2.5) BUY LGD NBW 100¢ $70 1h
Game Handicap: LGD (-2.5) vs Royal Never Give Up (+2.5) BUY Royal Never Give Up 100¢ $70 1h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY LGD NBW 59¢ $3 1h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 46¢ $6 2h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 12¢ $1 2h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 12¢ $6 2h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 12¢ $3 2h
Game Handicap: RNG.M (-2.5) vs LGD NBW (+2.5) BUY LGD NBW 99¢ $10 2h
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs Royal Never Give Up (BO5) - King Pro League BUY Royal Never Give Up 10¢ $3 3h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 40¢ $3 5h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 7¢ $0 5h
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S BUY TOP Esports Armor 5¢ $0 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner SELL Noir Verse 2¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner BUY Noir Verse 9¢ $6 5h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 2¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 2¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 2¢ $0 6h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse - Map 1 Winner BUY Noir Verse 7¢ $7 6h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner SELL KUUSAMO.gg 2¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner SELL KUUSAMO.gg 4¢ $1 7h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY KUUSAMO.gg 3¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY KUUSAMO.gg 2¢ $0 7h
Counter-Strike: KUUSAMO.gg vs Prestige - Map 1 Winner BUY KUUSAMO.gg 1¢ $1 7h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 99¢ $248 7h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 98¢ $39 7h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 36¢ $4 8h
Honor of Kings: WST vs Rogue Warriors (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 BUY WST 35¢ $2 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $375.80 · official $375.80 (match) · 3500 history records