Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb56a…226b crypto 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$103 (+0%) realized +$103 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate84%69W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$362per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$20
other 6% +$25
sports 2% +$46
weather 1% $0
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 15 -26.0% -33.1% 73% 0% -9.0%
all 82 -9.7% -18.3% 84% 21% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 21% -9.2%
10% -26.2% 1% -17.9%
15% -33.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -39.8% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$103
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses69 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 83
History coverage124d
Avg bet$362
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $109 $109 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $109 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $110 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $108 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 09 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 02 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 15 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $97 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 27? Mar 28 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 20? Mar 21 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on March 14? Mar 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $66 +$4 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,900 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $3,197 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 7? Mar 08 $3,200 +$3 +0%
FC Bayern München vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 Mar 07 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of March 2 above $141? Mar 07 $33 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $3,197 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 64°F or higher on March 7? Mar 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Real Madrid vs. Virtus Bologna Mar 06 $18 +$3 +15%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $390 on March 5? Mar 06 $30 +$2 +5%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on March 5? Mar 06 $766 +$5 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 5? Mar 06 $4,340 +$4 +0%
LoL: French Flair vs TLN Pirates (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs Mar 05 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 4? Mar 05 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on March 4? Mar 05 $126 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $4,895 +$5 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 04 $10 $0 +2%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Air Force Falcons Mar 04 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 04 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $39 +$1 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Invictus Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $50 +$4 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $4,985 +$15 +0%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs VR2 (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Mar 03 $17 +$3 +18%
Gold (GC) Up or Down on March 2? Mar 03 $24 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 3? Mar 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $56,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 28 to March 2, 2026? Mar 03 $24 +$3 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 2? Mar 03 $29 +$1 +2%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Mar 02 $40 +$4 +11%
San Diego FC vs. St. Louis City SC: O/U 1.5 Mar 02 $13 +$2 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 1h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes $0 4d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $110 5d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 13d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $0 18d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes $1 18d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 21d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 24d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY Yes $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 31d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes $0 32d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $108 39d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $0 42d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $109 45d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $0 48d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY Yes $0 49d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 53d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $10 55d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 63d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY Yes $0 66d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 70d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes $0 73d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes $0 73d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes $0 73d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY Yes $0 73d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 77d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY Yes $0 80d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $98 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.95 · official $108.95 (match) · 260 history records