Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb56b…9358 other 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%6W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$563
sports 32% +$1,012
world 10% −$440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-35.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 23% 23% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 23% 23% -9.4%
≤90d 26 -29.0% -35.7% 23% 23% -9.4%
all 26 -29.0% -35.7% 23% 23% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.7% 23% -9.4%
10% -41.9% 23% -18.0%
15% -47.5% 23% -25.9%
20% -52.7% 19% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$488 vs −$146 · ×3.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses6 / 20
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage7d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $250 +$622 +249%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $267 −$260 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $221 −$218 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $157 +$136 +87%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$73 +48%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $304 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $144 −$140 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $395 −$249 -63%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $205 −$158 -77%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$68 -67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $785 −$750 -96%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $460 +$1,248 +272%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $245 +$188 +76%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $156 +$659 +421%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $214 −$200 -94%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $872 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $250 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 43¢ $46 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 24h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $102 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $4 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $267 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $221 3d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes $31 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $293 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $152 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $225 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $304 4d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $144 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 12¢ $146 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 24¢ $243 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 5d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $46 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes $34 5d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $51 5d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records