Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:01:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
B5 0xb56b…28db other 148 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,948 (+18%) realized +$1,948 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate32%47W / 100L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$181
7 days−$734
14 days−$321
30 days+$347
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$1,849
sports 9% −$143
crypto 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -69.8% -72.7% 8% 8% -56.7%
≤30d 45 -43.7% -49.0% 13% 13% +4.6%
≤90d 89 -20.8% -28.3% 21% 21% +0.9%
all 147 -0.7% -10.1% 32% 28% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 28% +5.6%
10% -18.7% 27% -4.5%
15% -26.6% 23% -13.8%
20% -33.8% 18% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$41 · ×2.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$1,948
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses47 / 100
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)147 / 148
History coverage128d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 147 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 21 $185 −$75 -41%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $170 −$77 -46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -94%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $105 −$4 -4%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $102 +$79 +77%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $21 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $25 −$17 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -95%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 19 $205 −$186 -91%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score in First H Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $94 −$90 -96%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $46 −$45 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $78 −$22 -28%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$107 +208%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $102 −$94 -92%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $165 +$800 +484%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $52 −$42 -80%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs T1 Academy (BO3) - Asia Masters Group B Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Mast Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 08 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $52 −$50 -95%
Bermuda leading at halftime? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $19 −$18 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $37 +$50 +138%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $100 +$665 +668%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 24 $44 +$10 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $36 −$22 -61%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $98 +$338 +344%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $102 −$97 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $123 −$50 -41%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $52 +$55 +106%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $14 −$13 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 9¢ $109 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 15¢ $185 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 3¢ $3 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 17¢ $16 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 14¢ $90 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 23¢ $153 10h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 11h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 11h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 12h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 13h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $15 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $16 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $105 20h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 33¢ $152 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 50¢ $24 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 50¢ $5 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 19¢ $102 27h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 22¢ $15 38h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $21 38h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 27¢ $19 38h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 20¢ $14 38h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 38h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 38h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.79 · official $4.79 (match) · 404 history records