Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb56c…8567 weather 188 markets active 1h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate45%84W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 46% −$1
other 12% −$2
crypto 11% −$6
culture 10% $0
politics 9% +$1
sports 6% −$9
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 80 -0.0% -9.5% 38% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 145 -1.4% -10.8% 37% 0% -9.8%
all 187 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 1% -9.9%
10% -20.8% 1% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 1% -26.4%
20% -35.5% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses84 / 103
Open positions1
Markets (closed)187 / 188
History coverage540d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 100¢ 98¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? Jun 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? Jun 25 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 25? Jun 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? Jun 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? Jun 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 Jun 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? Jun 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? Jun 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 1? Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 41°C on June 2? Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will Julie Stauch win the 2026 Iowa Governor Democratic primary electi Jun 01 $26 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 1? Jun 01 $7 $0 -0%
Will Adam Miller win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 1? Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Ethereum Volatility Index dip to 40 by May 31? Jun 01 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 31 $11 $0 +0%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by May 31? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on May 31? May 31 $24 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 31? May 31 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on May 31? May 31 $30 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 30? May 30 $33 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 62-63°F on May May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Lana – Social Democratic Party win the most seats in the 2026 Leb May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 52-53°F on Ma May 30 $12 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 30 $30 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will Nationalist Party win the third-most seats in the House of Repres May 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on May 29? May 29 $3 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $6 1h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C or higher on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 25? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $12 4h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C or below on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $30 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 19h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $27 22h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $29 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $12 21d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 55 and 56 million views on day 4 BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 78-79°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $25 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $16 21d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $4 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $8 21d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $24 21d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $26 21d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $30 21d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 22d
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? SELL No 100¢ $1 22d
Will Don Primus be the Democratic Nominee for IA-02? SELL No 100¢ $5 22d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J SELL No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $16 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.62 · official $17.66 (match) · 480 history records