Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:25:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb56d…d621 sports 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$51,559 (+16%) realized +$53,462 · open −$1,903
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$4,714per market
Trades / day18.9pace
Fees−$4,048est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$60,167now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,458
7 days−$2,268
14 days+$2,418
30 days+$52,168
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$39,621
other 6% +$10,568
crypto 0% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -7.9% -16.7% 56% 50% -14.7%
≤30d 67 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 52% +8.5%
≤90d 67 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 52% +8.5%
all 67 -1.9% -11.3% 54% 52% +8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 52% +8.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 52% -1.9%
15% -27.5% 52% -11.3%
20% -34.6% 48% -20.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +20% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$5,000) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,720 vs −$2,637 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$60,167
Realized+$53,462
Unrealized−$1,903
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$4,048
Open positions2
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage27d
Avg bet$4,714
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ 62¢ $61,070 $59,630 −$1,441 (-2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $1,000 $537 −$463 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $2,534 +$2,012 +79%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $7,018 +$3,831 +55%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $2,215 −$2,187 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $2,020 −$2,000 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $1,470 +$803 +55%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,521 −$1,500 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1,704 −$1,679 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4,536 +$3,149 +69%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $457 +$543 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $2,005 −$1,981 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $629 −$621 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,105 +$528 +48%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,450 −$1,420 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,729 −$5,649 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2,531 +$1,779 +70%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $31 +$2 +5%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,755 +$2,110 +120%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $1,468 +$1,032 +70%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $7,648 +$6,266 +82%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $2,110 +$1,890 +90%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4,675 +$5,325 +114%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1,791 −$1,762 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $1,231 −$1,220 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $3,135 +$1,865 +60%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $3,223 +$3,873 +120%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 11 $2,984 +$3,016 +101%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 11 $1,278 −$1,250 -98%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $7,004 −$6,911 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $3,777 +$3,168 +84%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $4,943 −$4,943 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $5,175 −$5,100 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5,478 −$5,399 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $2,702 +$1,898 +70%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $1,095 −$92 -8%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $3,135 +$1,865 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 08 $103 +$75 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $5,096 +$2,904 +57%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $3,380 +$6,620 +196%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 07 $1,521 +$1,404 +92%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 06 $6,552 +$2,896 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 06 $6,828 +$5,041 +74%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $3,105 +$1,695 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $1,524 −$1,500 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $5,069 −$5,000 -99%
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Jun 04 $5,420 −$5,343 -99%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 03 $3,064 +$2,363 +77%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 02 $3,149 −$3,110 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $23,201 25m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $26,710 25m
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $5,770 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $2,022 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,022 1h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $4,045 2h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 55¢ $2,534 4h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $1,969 26h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 58¢ $2,215 26h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 64¢ $5,050 27h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 66¢ $2,020 30h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 64¢ $1,470 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,521 3d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $1,704 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $487 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,012 4d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $457 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $3,037 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $1,005 4d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $629 4d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $1,001 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,105 5d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 65¢ $2,021 5d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 48¢ $1,016 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 29¢ $1,450 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2,028 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $1,521 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $2,179 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $2,531 6d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 52¢ $32 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60,166.91 · official $60,203.95 (match) · 550 history records