Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:02:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

B5
0xb571…33b2
world · 86 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$26 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$10
Realized−$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses36 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage524d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 3 History 83 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alberta join the US? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $60 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $25 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $120 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 04 $17 −$1 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 02 $21 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $19 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $52 +$2 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $20 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 25 $37 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $38 −$17 -45%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $113 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $4 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $73 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $65 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $118 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $35 $0 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $77 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $36 $0 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Apr 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will João Fonseca be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Apr 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $105 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $1 $0 +3%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 08 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $40 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 35% −$17
politics 28% +$6
other 19% −$3
sports 12% −$19
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$3
weather 1% +$11
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 35h
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $20 2d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $20 2d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 71¢ $21 3d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 71¢ $21 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $20 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 4d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $21 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $21 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $21 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $19 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $19 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 19¢ $14 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $17 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $21 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $21 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 7d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $21 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $16 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $17 8d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $22 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 78¢ $21 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 79¢ $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 23 -0.9% -10.4% 39% 4% -11.6%
≤90d 62 -0.4% -9.9% 35% 2% -10.2%
all 83 -1.8% -11.1% 43% 16% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 16% -10.4%
10% -19.6% 12% -19.0%
15% -27.4% 8% -26.8%
20% -34.5% 6% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.79 · official $8.85 (match) · 353 history records