Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:55:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb572…283f sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35 (-13%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day36.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$63
other 23% +$28
crypto 6% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -26.9%
≤30d 30 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -26.9%
≤90d 30 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -26.9%
all 30 -16.2% -24.2% 37% 37% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.2% 37% -26.9%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 30% -33.9%
15% -38.1% 23% -40.3%
20% -44.1% 23% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day36.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Spain 19¢ 20¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$7 +143%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$11 +223%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +234%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $17 +$4 +25%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 14 $5 $0 -6%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$16 -75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8 +$1 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$8 -43%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 −$5 -89%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$20 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$14 -68%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -17%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$5 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 20¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 19¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 2h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 3h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 5h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $16 5h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $17 5h
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6h
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 48¢ $6 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 38¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 21¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 56¢ $10 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $2 12h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 10¢ $1 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $2 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 12h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 61¢ $5 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $2 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 45¢ $5 20h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 37¢ $7 21h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 34¢ $7 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.04 · official $40.04 (match) · 76 history records