Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:03:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb577…a4ed crypto 402 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (509 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$26 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%179W / 222L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day508.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$83
sports 0% $0
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (509 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -27.4% -34.3% 34% 32% -25.0%
≤30d 401 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 41% -11.8%
≤90d 401 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 41% -11.8%
all 401 +4.0% -5.9% 45% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover508.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.9% 41% -11.8%
10% ← realistic here -14.9% 39% -20.3%
15% -23.1% 36% -28.0%
20% -30.7% 33% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses179 / 222
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)401 / 402
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day508.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 401 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$7 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$6 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$3 +186%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$8 +335%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $19 +$11 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$5 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $32 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 −$6 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$10 +245%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$3 +140%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $7 −$7 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$3 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $0 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 1819 history records