Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:48:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb57a…5cfc crypto 265 markets active 2h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,945 (-7%) realized −$4,867 · open −$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate56%146W / 116L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,008now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$367
7 days+$367
14 days+$367
30 days+$367
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$4,271
politics 7% −$1,293
other 5% +$133
world 3% −$337
finance 1% +$154
sports 0% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +55.9% +41.0% 100% 100% +41.0%
≤30d 1 +55.9% +41.0% 100% 100% +41.0%
≤90d 41 -91.7% -92.5% 2% 2% -84.3%
all 262 -10.1% -18.6% 56% 39% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 39% -16.6%
10% -26.4% 32% -24.6%
15% -33.5% 25% -31.9%
20% -40.0% 19% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$116 vs −$193 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$1,008
Realized−$4,867
Unrealized−$78
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses146 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)262 / 265
History coverage182d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 262 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $600 $609 +$9 (+2%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $400 $398 −$2 (-1%)
Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $86 $1 −$84 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $658 +$367 +56%
Will Trump say "State of the Union" in Corpus Christi on Friday? Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during meetings with Chancellor Merz? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$76 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Apr 09 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 09 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 09 $220 −$109 -50%
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 09 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Trump say "Clean coal" or "Beautiful coal" during Kentucky visit? Apr 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 09 $400 −$16 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 09 $211 −$199 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Job" 5+ times during Medal of Honor ceremony on March Apr 09 $111 −$111 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Kentucky visit? Apr 09 $159 −$159 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $76 −$71 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 09 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Apr 09 $145 −$145 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 09 $213 −$213 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Third term" in March? Apr 09 $310 −$310 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump say "Charlie Kirk" during the State of the Union address? Apr 09 $237 −$237 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 09 $538 −$538 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 09 $782 −$782 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Apr 09 $400 −$400 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Apr 09 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Trump say "Hell" 5+ times in Rome, GA on February 19? Apr 09 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri Mar 15 $63 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 13 $59 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 13 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 13 $53 +$3 +6%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 Mar 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Mar 13 $61 +$2 +3%
Will Trump say "State of the Union" or "State of Union" during Women's Mar 13 $91 +$40 +44%
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? Mar 12 $79 +$12 +15%
Will Trump say "Cheat" during Kentucky visit? Mar 12 $4 +$8 +198%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $401 3h
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 93¢ $401 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,025 3h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 62¢ $64 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $63 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $63 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $59 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $59 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $56 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $56 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $53 101d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Pri BUY No 98¢ $63 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $63 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $61 101d
Will Max Verstappen win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 101d
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap in Practice 1 at the 2026 BUY No 95¢ $50 101d
Will Trump say "State of the Union" or "State of Union" during Women's BUY No 69¢ $91 102d
Will Artemis II launch by April 30? SELL Yes 58¢ $91 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $213 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $200 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $12 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $11 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $130 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $100 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $100 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $202 102d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 102d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,008.25 · official $1,008.89 (match) · 943 history records