Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb57d…07bf sports 782 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,175 (-1%) realized −$2,348 · open +$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%287W / 493L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$328per market
Trades / day32.3pace
Fees−$5,234est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$618now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$15,903
other 2% +$3,234
politics 1% −$451
crypto 0% −$128
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -38.6% -44.4% 30% 26% -66.4%
≤30d 556 -4.7% -13.7% 36% 34% -14.1%
≤90d 780 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 35% -14.3%
all 780 -5.6% -14.6% 37% 35% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 35% -14.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 34% -22.5%
15% -30.3% 32% -30.0%
20% -37.1% 28% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$254 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$618
Realized−$2,348
Unrealized+$173
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses287 / 493
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$5,234
Open positions1
Markets (closed)780 / 782
History coverage49d
Avg bet$328
Trades / day32.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 780 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Spirit 54¢ 76¢ $445 $618 +$173 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 362 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $416 +$432 +104%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $297 +$330 +111%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $307 −$300 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $198 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $247 −$244 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $168 +$78 +47%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $463 +$701 +152%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $332 +$131 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $392 −$221 -56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $145 +$187 +128%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $163 −$20 -12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $220 −$218 -99%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 −$14 -98%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $28 −$13 -48%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $22 −$22 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 +$1 +1%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $22 −$12 -54%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $35 −$3 -8%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$7 +27%
Asuncion 2: Santiago De La Fuente vs Paulo Dos Santos Jun 16 $57 −$28 -50%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $195 −$192 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $130 +$65 +50%
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Jun 16 $26 −$8 -29%
Royan: Philip Henning vs Gerard Campana Lee Jun 16 $114 −$86 -76%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $324 −$316 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $307 +$156 +51%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux Jun 16 $67 −$65 -98%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $52 +$15 +29%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $120 −$68 -57%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $308 −$35 -12%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $581 −$415 -72%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $47 −$45 -97%
Poznan: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Max Hans Rehberg Jun 16 $205 +$97 +48%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $728 +$149 +20%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $113 −$110 -97%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Henri Squire Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $306 −$300 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $103 −$101 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $244 −$134 -55%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $158 +$284 +180%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $203 +$258 +127%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $197 +$103 +52%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $381 −$375 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$198 -98%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $165 +$216 +131%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $657 +$941 +143%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $633 −$623 -98%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $370 +$264 +72%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,098 −$959 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 51¢ $46 11m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 45¢ $152 13m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 63¢ $253 38m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $848 39m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $97 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $223 1h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $627 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 47¢ $297 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 27¢ $307 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 41¢ $198 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 59¢ $247 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $246 5h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 67¢ $168 6h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,163 19h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $463 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $463 20h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $332 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $332 22h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $145 23h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Frances Tiafoe 31¢ $143 23h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 34¢ $163 23h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 30¢ $49 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 25¢ $49 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 43¢ $89 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 63¢ $89 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 23¢ $3 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 23¢ $30 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 10¢ $33 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $221 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $618.44 · official $618.44 (match) · 1645 history records