Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb57d…5bc1 world 40 markets active 4d ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$308 (-17%) realized −$132 · open −$176
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$611now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$126
14 days−$190
30 days−$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$314
politics 7% +$7
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -33.6% -39.9% 50% 25% -45.5%
≤30d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 68% 42% -21.1%
≤90d 19 -14.8% -22.9% 68% 42% -21.1%
all 19 -14.8% -22.9% 68% 42% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 42% -21.1%
10% -30.3% 26% -28.6%
15% -37.0% 16% -35.5%
20% -43.2% 0% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$44 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$611
Realized−$132
Unrealized−$176
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)19 / 40
History coverage28d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $80 $83 +$3 (+4%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 70¢ 72¢ $75 $77 +$2 (+2%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 91¢ 97¢ $68 $73 +$5 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 55¢ 82¢ $44 $66 +$22 (+51%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 86¢ $57 $65 +$8 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 53¢ 52¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 70¢ 84¢ $31 $37 +$6 (+20%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 49¢ 40¢ $43 $35 −$9 (-20%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 71¢ 66¢ $33 $31 −$3 (-8%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 58¢ 62¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 58¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 70¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$1 (+25%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 72¢ 81¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+13%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 71¢ $105 $1 −$104 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 89¢ $55 $1 −$54 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 39¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 25¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $65 +$8 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $137 −$137 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $110 +$5 +5%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $5 +$2 +47%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $65 +$32 +49%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 +$16 +16%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $25 −$25 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 05 $8 −$8 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $57 +$4 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $60 +$4 +7%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$7 +35%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$8 +41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $88 +$21 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $135 +$22 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 25 $24 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL No 17¢ $2 4d
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 BUY Yes 72¢ $4 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY No 35¢ $4 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $50 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 84¢ $25 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $30 6d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 82¢ $10 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $100 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 74¢ $100 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 92¢ $10 7d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $20 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 85¢ $35 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 96¢ $50 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $20 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 10d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 70¢ $25 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 56¢ $8 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $40 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $15 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $5 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $20 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $30 12d
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $10 12d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 12d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? SELL No 42¢ $28 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY No 71¢ $2 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $30 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $30 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY No 93¢ $60 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $611.42 · official $611.42 (match) · 95 history records