Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:20:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
B5 0xb57d…788f other 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,009 (-1%) realized −$1,012 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate24%26W / 83L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,193per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$935now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$8
14 days−$22
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$947
politics 36% −$53
sports 9% −$20
world 4% −$6
crypto 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 109 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 15% -10.2%
10% -18.4% 15% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 15% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 15% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,440) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$23 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$935
Realized−$1,012
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses26 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage134d
Avg bet$1,193
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $932 $935 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $3,117 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,951 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $1,009 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $1,329 −$2 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 14 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,655 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,406 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,306 −$2 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,241 −$2 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,296 −$3 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,440 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $356 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $462 +$1 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $621 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,849 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 27 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $754 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $3,754 −$5 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $2,398 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $7,175 −$8 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $3,387 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $2,483 −$3 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $1,066 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $1,347 −$1 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,798 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,629 −$3 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $1,248 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,146 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,253 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $3,290 −$3 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,275 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $2,347 −$2 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $3,208 −$3 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,375 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $1,050 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $992 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $4,437 −$4 -0%
Based FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 30 $5,661 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $467 28m
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $468 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $468 5d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $468 5d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $468 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $469 6d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $471 7d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $471 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $469 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $469 8d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $932 10d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $902 12d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $903 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $1,419 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $1,420 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,400 13d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,402 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,404 13d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,406 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 14d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,239 19d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,241 19d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,156 22d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,158 22d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,185 22d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,187 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,286 22d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,288 23d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,438 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $935.16 · official $935.16 (match) · 370 history records