Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb57d…3062 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 71% −$8
other 20% +$1
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.4% -9.2% 38% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 +0.3% -9.2% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 16 -6.4% -15.3% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 30 -6.4% -15.3% 43% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -23.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -30.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.6% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage466d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 25 $38 +$1 +2%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $34 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $34 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $40 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $62 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $33 −$2 -6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 25 $17 +$1 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $51 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $37 −$5 -13%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $42 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 12 $11 $0 +3%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Dec 12 $0 $0 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +2%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Apr 21 $1 $0 -6%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? Apr 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 17 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 16 $14 $0 -0%
Yoon out as president of South Korea before April? Apr 03 $13 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 51°F or below on March 25? Mar 26 $13 $0 +2%
Will Michigan State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $13 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 32m
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $8 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $30 15h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 27h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $31 37h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $31 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $15 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $16 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $9 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $31 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $34 4d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $34 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $34 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.45 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records