Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:23:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb57f…0c96 sports 838 markets active 3h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$22,587 (-8%) realized −$22,527 · open −$60
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%360W / 474L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day22.6pace
Fees−$3,396est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$4,215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$914
7 days−$3,138
14 days−$1,482
30 days−$10,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$21,084
other 4% −$3,776
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -10.5% -19.1% 49% 47% -15.3%
≤30d 386 -6.4% -15.3% 47% 45% -15.9%
≤90d 834 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 42% -18.0%
all 834 -11.8% -20.2% 43% 42% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 42% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 40% -25.8%
15% -34.8% 35% -33.0%
20% -41.2% 27% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$267 vs −$255 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$4,215
Realized−$22,527
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses360 / 474
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$3,396
Open positions4
Markets (closed)834 / 838
History coverage82d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day22.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 834 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 32¢ 31¢ $2,516 $2,456 −$61 (-2%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $1,003 $1,014 +$10 (+1%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Team Falcons 67¢ 66¢ $504 $500 −$4 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 66¢ 64¢ $251 $245 −$6 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 309 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 19 $859 −$845 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $391 −$386 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2,360 +$854 +36%
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 19 $482 +$414 +86%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $1,047 −$1,032 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $212 +$309 +145%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,013 +$710 +70%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $441 +$502 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $298 +$95 +32%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $386 −$377 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 19 $620 +$182 +29%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 18 $245 −$242 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $738 −$724 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $300 −$293 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $1,212 −$1,201 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $781 +$1,236 +158%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs QoR (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 18 $116 −$115 -99%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $971 −$951 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $1,034 +$860 +83%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $724 +$622 +86%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,142 −$1,126 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $1,053 −$1,040 -99%
Honor of Kings: Team WE vs TOP Esports Armor (BO5) - King Pro League S Jun 18 $157 −$154 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $508 +$454 +89%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 18 $750 +$241 +32%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $399 +$454 +114%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $957 +$308 +32%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $568 +$1,226 +216%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $75 +$79 +105%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 17 $1,007 +$287 +28%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs ROSE (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Gr Jun 17 $196 −$194 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,128 −$1,104 -98%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $395 +$172 +43%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $152 +$64 +42%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $126 +$12 +9%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $395 +$172 +43%
Spread: Austria (-2.5) Jun 17 $339 −$331 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $259 +$241 +93%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $417 +$313 +75%
Map Handicap: UW (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 17 $43 −$42 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $764 +$1,112 +146%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $168 −$165 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 16 $455 −$448 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,846 +$474 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $720 +$44 +6%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $1,169 −$1,145 -98%
Overwatch: REVATI vs Uwinks (BO3) - OCS Japan Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 16 $399 +$151 +38%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $416 −$412 -99%
Dota 2: G-Time vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 16 $84 −$6 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $5 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 30¢ $995 3h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $1,253 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $509 8h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $509 9h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $509 9h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $315 12h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 44¢ $733 12h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 44¢ $126 12h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $152 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $133 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $106 13h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 66¢ $254 13h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $2,360 14h
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC SELL CAG Osaka 100¢ $896 20h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 50¢ $1,047 22h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $521 24h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 40¢ $212 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC BUY CAG Osaka 53¢ $303 28h
Rainbow Six Siege: FearX vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC BUY CAG Osaka 53¢ $179 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,722 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $943 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $393 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $441 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 74¢ $97 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 76¢ $201 34h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 23¢ $386 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,013 35h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 100¢ $801 35h
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) BUY Mentality Monster 47¢ $63 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,214.69 · official $4,214.69 (match) · 2084 history records