Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:46:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb581…0308 sports 903 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,742 (-15%) realized −$12,598 · open −$144
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%450W / 448L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day48.2pace
Fees−$1,207est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 62d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$1,379
other 9% −$2,249
crypto 1% −$106
finance 0% +$524
politics 0% +$58
world 0% −$2
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -3.9% -13.1% 47% 47% -13.2%
≤30d 232 -3.9% -13.1% 45% 44% -17.7%
≤90d 898 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 50% -9.9%
all 898 +4.7% -5.2% 50% 50% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 50% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 50% -18.5%
15% -22.6% 49% -26.4%
20% -30.2% 47% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$89 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$1,714
Realized−$12,598
Unrealized−$144
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses450 / 448
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$1,207
Open positions11
Markets (closed)898 / 903
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$95
Trades / day48.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 898 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $396 $409 +$13 (+3%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 12¢ $730 $291 −$439 (-60%)
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $133 $238 +$105 (+79%)
England to score first vs. Croatia? Yes 62¢ 100¢ $145 $234 +$89 (+61%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 47¢ 98¢ $100 $207 +$107 (+107%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners Over 56¢ 100¢ $70 $125 +$55 (+78%)
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 32¢ 40¢ $61 $77 +$16 (+26%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Under 40¢ 20¢ $110 $56 −$54 (-49%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 100¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+35%)
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots Yes 58¢ 50¢ $32 $28 −$4 (-14%)
Harry Kane: 1+ goals No 56¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 429 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-25? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Porto (-1.5) Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in April? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump talk to Mohammed bin Salman in April? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in April? Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 17? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on April 17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $35 +$9 +26%
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals Jun 17 $76 +$24 +31%
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals Jun 17 $74 +$26 +35%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $71 +$29 +41%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $48 +$52 +108%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 +$54 +117%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$20 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$28 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $41 +$43 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $68 +$32 +47%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$71 +140%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$9 -22%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $61 −$60 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $152 +$110 +72%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals Jun 15 $72 +$28 +39%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $37 −$36 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 15 $120 +$14 +12%
Nico Williams: 1+ goals Jun 15 $168 +$82 +49%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $439 +$135 +31%
Mikel Merino: 1+ goals Jun 15 $30 +$14 +46%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $52 −$51 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $44 −$3 -6%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $93 +$256 +276%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $194 −$190 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $555 +$333 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $23 +$14 +61%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $123 −$2 -1%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $144 −$3 -2%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $7 +$6 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $35 1h
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 32¢ $62 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $112 1h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 1h
England vs. Croatia: England 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $33 1h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 3h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $47 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $24 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $35 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $35 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY No 79¢ $35 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 3+ shots BUY Yes 58¢ $32 4h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $11 4h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $16 4h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $6 5h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $44 5h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $32 5h
Rafael Leão: 1+ goals BUY No 74¢ $30 5h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 47¢ $102 5h
Bernardo Silva: 1+ goals BUY No 76¢ $12 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $22 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 5h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $6 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $22 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,713.68 · official $1,699.93 (match) · 3500 history records