Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:23:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb58b…a4e9 crypto 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,471 (+35%) realized +$3,471 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$258per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$142
7 days+$1,404
14 days+$1,404
30 days+$1,767
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$2,184
crypto 24% −$890
sports 6% +$215
politics 1% +$363
world 1% −$105
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -29.8% -36.5% 44% 44% +4.5%
≤30d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 46% 46% +7.8%
≤90d 37 -21.3% -28.8% 46% 46% +7.8%
all 37 -21.3% -28.8% 46% 46% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 46% +7.8%
10% -35.6% 43% -2.5%
15% -41.8% 35% -11.9%
20% -47.5% 24% -20.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$141 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,471
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage54d
Avg bet$258
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $220 −$220 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 22 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $851 −$851 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,518 +$979 +64%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $504 +$181 +36%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $304 +$226 +74%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $101 +$34 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$188 +62%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $303 +$205 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,315 +$1,382 +105%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $215 −$215 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $314 +$81 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $317 +$402 +127%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $525 +$224 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $54 −$36 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$40 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $107 +$66 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $213 +$102 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $105 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $106 +$37 +35%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $126 +$363 +287%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $220 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,497 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $1,518 4h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 46¢ $102 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $548 15h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $504 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $608 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 2d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 74¢ $101 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $303 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $304 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $232 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,315 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $314 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $719 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $317 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $749 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $18 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $54 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $53 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $525 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 80 history records