Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb58d…9cfa politics 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+0%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 102L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$13
other 40% −$11
sports 6% +$75
tech 5% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 2% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 91 -0.7% -10.1% 4% 3% -9.5%
all 116 -1.8% -11.1% 12% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 9% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 8% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 6% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×10.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 102
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)116 / 119
History coverage120d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $237 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $439 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $249 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 17 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 14 $379 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 07 $209 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $178 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? May 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $159 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 04 $146 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $182 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $212 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 02 $385 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $388 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $212 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $223 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $198 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $359 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 26 $470 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $191 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $183 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $246 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $425 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $179 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 19 $196 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $232 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $386 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 18 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $231 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $413 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $396 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $240 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $204 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $241 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $227 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $240 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 15d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $20 18d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $237 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $237 29d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $220 31d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $220 34d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $28 34d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $155 38d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $155 41d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $163 41d
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $163 47d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $209 48d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $209 48d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $161 49d
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $161 49d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $178 49d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 50d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 51d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $185 51d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $185 51d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $146 51d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $146 51d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 52d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $28 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.92 · official $100.92 (match) · 342 history records