Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
B5 0xb59a…fe30 sports 77 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$2 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate77%54W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$5
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$5
other 37% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +9.5% -0.9% 79% 54% +0.1%
≤30d 70 -0.4% -9.9% 77% 51% -8.5%
≤90d 70 -0.4% -9.9% 77% 51% -8.5%
all 70 -0.4% -9.9% 77% 51% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 51% -8.5%
10% -18.5% 30% -17.2%
15% -26.4% 16% -25.2%
20% -33.6% 9% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses54 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)70 / 77
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 64¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+55%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Over 91¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-93%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$1 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +12%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +18%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +20%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +29%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +48%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $1 $0 +20%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +2%
Jordan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $1 $0 +16%
Will Florentino Perez win the 2026 Real Madrid presidential election? Jun 07 $1 $0 +6%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +19%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
Will Kosovo win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +18%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $1 $0 +27%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $1 $0 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 80¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 90¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $1 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 4h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 4h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $1 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 7h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 7h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 83¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 10h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 84¢ $1 11h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 95¢ $1 11h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $1 29h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 30h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 40h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.98 · official $10.98 (match) · 142 history records