Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
B5 0xb59d…345b world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%15W / 14L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 80% +$2
other 16% $0
politics 4% +$1
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.2% -10.6% 17% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 20 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 5% -9.3%
≤90d 20 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 5% -9.3%
all 29 +0.5% -9.0% 52% 3% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 3% -9.2%
10% -17.7% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.13 per $1 lost it wins $5.13
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses15 / 14
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage477d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 82¢ 80¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $7 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $39 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $81 $0 -0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $39 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 -9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $21 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $61 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $116 +$1 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $15 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $72 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on May 23? May 24 $2 $0 +2%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Mar 30 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $19 $0 +1%
Will CDU/CSU and AfD form the next German Government? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $36 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $42 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 32h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $8 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 92¢ $30 37h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $39 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $43 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $38 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $39 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $28 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $11 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $39 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.07 · official $5.60 (match) · 113 history records