Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:19:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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B5 0xb5a0…fb10 crypto 500 markets active 3h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$471 (+5%) realized +$441 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%188W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day14.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$274now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$77
14 days+$167
30 days+$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% +$389
crypto 27% −$139
sports 3% +$26
world 0% −$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -20.7% -28.2% 30% 30% +7.1%
≤30d 59 +36.4% +23.4% 36% 36% +50.8%
≤90d 124 +36.6% +23.6% 30% 30% +17.6%
all 488 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 38% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 38% -5.2%
10% -17.4% 25% -14.3%
15% -25.4% 22% -22.6%
20% -32.7% 19% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$11 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$274
Realized+$441
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses188 / 300
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions12
Markets (closed)488 / 500
History coverage154d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 488 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $105 $112 +$8 (+7%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 11¢ $20 $45 +$25 (+121%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 55¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 52¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 287 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$23 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 +$20 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $24 +$19 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 +$89 +809%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 +$20 +90%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$15 +97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$21 -99%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$36 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $16 +$16 +105%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $17 +$13 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $27 −$26 -96%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $17 −$16 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $11 +$5 +44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 13 $11 +$19 +172%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11 +$11 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $38 +$42 +110%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 04 $15 +$95 +630%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 30 $22 −$22 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in May 2026? May 29 $12 −$11 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $22 3h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 24h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $24 24h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $23 25h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 0 Norway? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $30 25h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 25h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 25h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 41h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 2d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $22 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $274.25 · official $274.25 (match) · 2361 history records