Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:42:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
B5 0xb5a1…c09d sports 470 markets active 1h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$105 (+8%) realized +$138 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate66%291W / 152L
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$18
14 days+$18
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% −$21
other 36% +$176
politics 9% −$62
weather 9% −$1
world 1% −$9
crypto 0% −$5
culture 0% −$4
economics 0% +$27
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 +5.0% -5.0% 69% 53% +5.8%
≤30d 72 +1.8% -7.9% 67% 51% -22.6%
≤90d 274 -14.2% -22.4% 57% 42% -46.2%
all 443 +1.7% -8.0% 66% 47% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 47% +1.4%
10% -16.8% 34% -8.3%
15% -24.8% 26% -17.2%
20% -32.2% 17% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized+$138
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses291 / 152
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions26
Markets (closed)443 / 470
History coverage145d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 443 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by June 30? Yes 16¢ 11¢ $21 $14 −$8 (-35%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $24 $13 −$11 (-45%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-66%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Yes 46¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-68%)
Will Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? Yes 79¢ 52¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-34%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Over 87¢ 56¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-35%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Under 85¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 98¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Yes 50¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners Under 72¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 39¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Over 63¢ 36¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 40¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Over 96¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 53¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 59¢ 26¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-55%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Over 75¢ 33¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-56%)
Will Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar be arrested in 2026? Yes 91¢ 40¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 20¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +34%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1 $0 +13%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +26%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $6 $0 +8%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +17%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Jun 14 $1 +$2 +188%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Türkiye to score first vs. Australia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +146%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Morocco to score first vs. Brazil? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +134%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 +$2 +206%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +45%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Qatar to score first vs. Switzerland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by June 30? Jun 13 $8 +$15 +186%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +76%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 72¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 96¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 59¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 98¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Over 75¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $1 1h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 6h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 6h
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 6h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 77¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $1 11h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Under 92¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 12h
Japan to score first vs. Netherlands? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 12h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.20 · official $67.21 (match) · 948 history records