Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B5 0xb5a2…a9bf sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$65 (+15%) realized +$31 · open +$34
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$50
other 12% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +14.8% +3.9% 71% 71% +2.7%
≤30d 17 +14.8% +3.9% 71% 71% +2.7%
≤90d 17 +14.8% +3.9% 71% 71% +2.7%
all 17 +14.8% +3.9% 71% 71% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 71% +2.7%
10% -6.1% 71% -7.1%
15% -15.1% 65% -16.1%
20% -23.5% 41% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$21 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$34
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage6d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $25 +$8 +32%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $22 +$11 +50%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $22 −$22 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $22 +$8 +38%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$8 +82%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $20 +$17 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Jun 19 $20 +$8 +40%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am Jun 18 $22 +$21 +93%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $21 +$19 +90%
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$9 +44%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$16 +76%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $21 +$13 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The Inter BUY Mentality Monster 65¢ $40 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Kyoji Horiguchi 40¢ $20 6h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 75¢ $25 7h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast As BUY Grind Back 59¢ $43 11h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 66¢ $20 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $22 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $22 15h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 72¢ $22 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY 54¢ $10 37h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $20 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 40h
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 71¢ $20 41h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Qatar 49¢ $21 2d
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Amaru Gaming 51¢ $22 2d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 52¢ $21 3d
Game Handicap: LGD (-1.5) vs Amaru Gaming (+1.5) BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $21 3d
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 66¢ $21 3d
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Estar Backs (+1.5) BUY PlayTime 56¢ $21 4d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri SELL Lindorfitos 100¢ $34 5d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 62¢ $21 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.07 · official $116.69 (match) · 32 history records