Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:59:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5a2…c2c2 sports 487 markets active 1h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,792 (-3%) realized −$1,640 · open −$152
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%227W / 258L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1,404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$132
7 days−$208
14 days−$1,088
30 days−$2,021
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$418
other 36% −$2,804
finance 9% +$559
crypto 8% +$59
tech 3% +$308
world 1% −$97
economics 1% −$13
politics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -42.0% -47.5% 0% 0% -33.1%
≤30d 101 -14.1% -22.3% 30% 27% -18.9%
≤90d 234 -10.4% -19.0% 39% 34% -12.9%
all 485 -1.9% -11.3% 47% 42% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 42% -11.8%
10% -19.8% 35% -20.2%
15% -27.5% 28% -27.9%
20% -34.6% 22% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$43 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$1,404
Realized−$1,640
Unrealized−$152
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses227 / 258
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions2
Markets (closed)485 / 487
History coverage214d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 485 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $1,554 $1,401 −$152 (-10%)
Will Weibo Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 26 $681 −$132 -19%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $118 −$76 -64%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $33 +$12 +35%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $302 +$315 +104%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $2,629 +$984 +37%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $229 −$34 -15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $149 −$147 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $413 −$114 -28%
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -7%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $42 −$14 -33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $142 −$139 -98%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $346 −$102 -30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $867 −$855 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,604 −$680 -42%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $27 −$27 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $475 −$102 -22%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $10 +$55 +548%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$5 +95%
Will Team WE win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -97%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $117 −$113 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $59 −$10 -17%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $25 −$10 -42%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $122 −$16 -13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $402 +$88 +22%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $30 −$14 -47%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $168 +$127 +76%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $95 −$31 -33%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $60 +$54 +90%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $72 −$72 -100%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $20 −$8 -42%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs GIANTX (+2.5) Jun 01 $79 −$7 -9%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $293 −$90 -31%
Will Top Esports win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $190 −$186 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $350 −$23 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $128 −$11 -9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $81 +$20 +24%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $56 +$16 +30%
Will JD Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -97%
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win LPL 2026 Split 2? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $143 −$22 -15%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $40 +$53 +134%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $278 −$15 -5%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $43 −$5 -12%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $46 −$3 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $186 57m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 46¢ $186 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $66 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $66 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $121 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 50¢ $121 1h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $114 11h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 34¢ $61 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 55¢ $176 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $2 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 59¢ $658 11h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 32¢ $660 11h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY No 60¢ $21 11h
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 37¢ $42 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Tunisia 17¢ $42 4d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 46¢ $118 4d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL Yes 39¢ $119 4d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $56 8d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $40 8d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 73¢ $19 8d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 74¢ $14 8d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $219 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 100¢ $94 8d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $1,465 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 97¢ $91 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $165 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 99¢ $2,528 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 98¢ $103 8d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL DR Congo 97¢ $684 8d
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY Yes 43¢ $265 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,404.47 · official $1,404.47 (match) · 2318 history records