Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5a2…1f0b other 47 markets active 3h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$140 (-31%) realized −$131 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%5W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit9%portable
Net worth$134now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$112
14 days−$142
30 days−$142
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% −$132
world 2% −$10
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -46.7% -51.8% 12% 9% -48.0%
≤30d 46 -50.2% -54.9% 11% 9% -53.3%
≤90d 46 -50.2% -54.9% 11% 9% -53.3%
all 46 -50.2% -54.9% 11% 9% -53.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.9% 9% -53.3%
10% -59.2% 9% -57.7%
15% -63.2% 9% -61.8%
20% -66.8% 9% -65.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late -60% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$6 · ×3.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$134
Realized−$131
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses5 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $144 $134 −$9 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $5 +$33 +650%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$4 +70%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 +$31 +596%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 +$49 +474%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $146 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 25h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? SELL Yes 13¢ $11 4d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.05 · official $136.76 · 52 history records