Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:54:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5a3…f99f crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$106 (-10%) realized −$103 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$152now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$103
other 14% −$2
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 33% -20.3%
≤30d 12 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 33% -20.3%
≤90d 12 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 33% -20.3%
all 12 -31.2% -37.8% 50% 33% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.8% 33% -20.3%
10% ← realistic here -43.7% 17% -27.9%
15% -49.2% 17% -34.9%
20% -54.2% 17% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$55 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$152
Realized−$103
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $104 +$129 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $126 +$19 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $112 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $106 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $169 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $146 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $61 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $152.25 · official $152.25 (match) · 23 history records