Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

B5 0xb5a7…c7d4 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$100 (+19%) realized +$106 · open −$6

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown20%max

Avg bet$45per market

Trades / day3.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$321now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+39.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+53.8%	+39.2%	86%	86%	+35.2%
≤30d	7	+53.8%	+39.2%	86%	86%	+35.2%
≤90d	7	+53.8%	+39.2%	86%	86%	+35.2%
all	7	+53.8%	+39.2%	86%	86%	+35.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.4 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+39.2%	86%	+35.2%
10%	+25.9%	86%	+22.2%
15%	+13.7%	86%	+10.4%
20%	+2.6%	71%	-0.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +49% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +54% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$20 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×6.12 per $1 lost it wins $6.12

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage

Net worth$321

Realized+$106

Unrealized−$6

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions5

Markets (closed)7 / 12

History coverage5d

Avg bet$45

Trades / day3.4

Drawdown20%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	62¢	64¢	$100	$102	+$2 (+2%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	43¢	42¢	$95	$94	−$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$70	$69	−$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	66¢	$40	$39	−$1 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	15¢	$22	$16	−$6 (-25%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$40	+$22	+55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$40	+$21	+52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 19	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$24	+$26	+107%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$33	+$19	+57%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	+$16	+158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$40	+$19	+48%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$61	1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$36	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$30	2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	65¢	$40	31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	62¢	$101	31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$40	31h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$40	31h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$40	31h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	48¢	$15	2d
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$23	2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$10	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$13	2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$20	2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	38¢	$10	3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$20	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$40	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $321.42 · official $321.42 (match) · 24 history records