Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:07:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
B5 0xb5a7…ae89 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,345 (+18%) realized +$1,276 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate69%38W / 17L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1,310now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$399
14 days+$436
30 days+$1,136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$1,201
other 15% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +10.0% -0.5% 69% 56% +12.7%
≤30d 55 +11.8% +1.1% 69% 60% +7.3%
≤90d 55 +11.8% +1.1% 69% 60% +7.3%
all 55 +11.8% +1.1% 69% 60% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 60% +7.3%
10% -8.5% 53% -2.9%
15% -17.4% 42% -12.3%
20% -25.5% 29% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$61 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,310
Realized+$1,276
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses38 / 17
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions5
Markets (closed)55 / 60
History coverage22d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 63¢ $618 $656 +$39 (+6%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? No 56¢ 56¢ $473 $477 +$4 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $100 $118 +$18 (+18%)
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Power Rangers 78¢ 100¢ $25 $32 +$7 (+28%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $26 $28 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 26 $29 +$2 +6%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $51 +$39 +75%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $3 −$2 -58%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $41 +$32 +79%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 26 $28 +$2 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $27 +$7 +26%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Jun 25 $101 +$42 +41%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $59 −$58 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$21 +69%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $52 +$18 +34%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $83 +$137 +165%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $124 −$39 -32%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $104 +$16 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $823 +$252 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$9 +62%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$8 +50%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $31 +$39 +129%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $30 +$12 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$5 +101%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $161 +$32 +20%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $101 +$58 +57%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $910 −$230 -25%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $203 +$205 +101%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $252 +$120 +48%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $304 +$272 +89%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $304 −$283 -93%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $304 +$269 +88%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $254 +$221 +87%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $259 +$197 +76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$20 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $264 +$16 +6%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $262 +$26 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Power Rangers 78¢ $25 46m
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $26 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $57 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $38 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY No 56¢ $382 1h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo SELL Yellow Submarine 87¢ $30 2h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner SELL MODUS 2¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner BUY MODUS 5¢ $3 4h
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Yellow Submarine 82¢ $29 4h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $51 6h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $31 8h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner BUY HULIGANI 56¢ $9 8h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY No 92¢ $28 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 21h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Nigma Galaxy 3¢ $2 27h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $25 28h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 81¢ $25 28h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 65¢ $25 28h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 73¢ $25 28h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 64¢ $25 29h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 25¢ $6 29h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 65¢ $53 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $52 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 59¢ $30 44h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $83 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 57¢ $84 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $124 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $104 3d
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $623 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,310.44 · official $1,310.52 (match) · 141 history records