Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:24:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5a8…1fd5 crypto 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$221 (-6%) realized −$221 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate80%93W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$140
7 days−$149
14 days−$149
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$290
other 3% −$107
politics 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 +3.7% -6.2% 85% 39% -12.9%
≤30d 112 +1.9% -7.8% 83% 38% -14.0%
≤90d 116 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 37% -19.0%
all 116 -1.3% -10.7% 80% 37% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 37% -19.0%
10% -19.2% 19% -26.8%
15% -27.0% 11% -33.9%
20% -34.2% 6% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$30 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$221
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses93 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)116 / 117
History coverage35d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 116 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 30¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 $0 +23%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $24 +$8 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $16 −$7 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 +$1 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$27 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $191 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $191 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $14 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $29 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$26 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $43 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $42 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $191 +$7 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $191 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$4 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$5 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $152 +$24 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$17 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$2 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$2 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -86%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $71 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 21 $70 +$3 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 21 $41 +$27 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 +$3 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $7 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 27m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $5 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 28m
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $3 29m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.12 · official $1.65 (match) · 256 history records