Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:43:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5aa…8b74 crypto 58 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3463 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,048 (-44%) realized −$9,857 · open −$191
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate42%32W / 45L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$394per market
Trades / day3463.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,605
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3463 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-29.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 22% -41.2%
≤30d 77 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 22% -41.2%
≤90d 77 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 22% -41.2%
all 77 -22.4% -29.8% 42% 22% -41.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3463.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.8% 22% -41.2%
10% ← realistic here -36.5% 13% -46.8%
15% -42.7% 8% -51.9%
20% -48.3% 8% -56.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$546) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
59.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$333 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$9,857
Unrealized−$191
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses32 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)77 / 58
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$394
Trades / day3463.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 62¢ 69¢ $99 $111 +$12 (+12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 36¢ 30¢ $103 $86 −$17 (-16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $176 $2 −$174 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $608 −$608 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $343 −$343 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $339 −$339 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $622 −$622 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $330 −$330 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $401 −$401 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $449 −$449 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $356 −$356 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $641 −$641 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $486 −$486 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $595 −$595 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $514 −$514 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $492 −$492 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $427 −$427 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $234 −$234 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $754 +$61 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $307 −$307 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $144 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $485 +$33 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $322 −$322 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $285 −$285 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $229 −$211 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $865 +$633 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $680 +$83 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $106 +$54 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $595 +$168 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $319 −$218 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1,064 +$177 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $482 +$242 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $674 +$138 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $696 +$67 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $959 +$77 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $301 −$301 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $371 −$371 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $471 +$38 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $6 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $53 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $22 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $41 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $0 5m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $200.05 · official $212.42 · 3500 history records