Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:33:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
B5 0xb5ad…daf6 other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$13 (-19%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -67% what you keep after slip
Net edge-67%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% $0
crypto 39% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-63.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -60.0% -63.8% 0% 0% -56.9%
≤30d 3 -60.0% -63.8% 0% 0% -56.9%
≤90d 3 -60.0% -63.8% 0% 0% -56.9%
all 3 -60.0% -63.8% 0% 0% -56.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -63.8% 0% -56.9%
10% -67.3% 0% -61.0%
15% -70.4% 0% -64.8%
20% -73.3% 0% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$4 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 13h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01? BUY Yes 45¢ $1 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.63 · official $39.63 (match) · 10 history records